Analysis of the Annual Report 2025 (Form 20-F) | Fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2025
FY2025, ended 31 Dec 2025. Financial statements in euro under US GAAP, signed on 25 Feb 2026.
Market data external to the document, used only for the multiples:
| Data point | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| ASML share price | €921.40 | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Shares outstanding (matches the balance sheet) | 385,417,665 | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Year-end market capitalization | €921.40 × 385,417,665 = €355.12 bn | 31 Dec 2025 |
The price is as of 31 Dec 2025 and the share count is shares outstanding at 31 Dec 2025, the fiscal year-end. Price and financial statements are both in euro: no currency conversion.
ASML designs, manufactures and services lithography systems for semiconductors, along with metrology and inspection systems and computational lithography software. Its customers are Logic and Memory chipmakers. The document describes its offering as "holistic lithography solutions". Revenue comes in two ways: system sales, governed by "volume purchase agreements" covering up to five years, with down payments made before delivery; and recurring revenue from service, upgrades and options on the installed base.
The document reports a single operating segment: "ASML has one reportable segment, since we are a holistic lithography solution provider". Management tracks sales by technology and by end-use.
Sales by category (€ mn)
| Category | FY2025 | % of total | FY2024 | FY2023 | YoY 25/24 | YoY 24/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE (EUV High NA) | 1,156.9 | 3.5% | 465.0 | 0.0 | +148.8% | n.m. |
| NXE (EUV) | 10,445.8 | 32.0% | 7,856.4 | 9,124.0 | +33.0% | −13.9% |
| ArF immersion | 10,311.4 | 31.6% | 9,667.0 | 9,017.4 | +6.7% | +7.2% |
| ArF dry | 427.0 | 1.3% | 774.4 | 780.2 | −44.9% | −0.7% |
| KrF | 1,001.3 | 3.1% | 1,991.2 | 2,202.5 | −49.7% | −9.6% |
| I-line | 307.3 | 0.9% | 369.2 | 278.4 | −16.8% | +32.6% |
| Metrology & Inspection | 824.6 | 2.5% | 645.5 | 536.1 | +27.7% | +20.4% |
| Total systems | 24,474.3 | 74.9% | 21,768.7 | 21,938.6 | +12.4% | −0.8% |
| Service and field options | 8,193.0 | 25.1% | 6,494.2 | 5,619.9 | +26.2% | +15.6% |
| Total | 32,667.3 | 100.0% | 28,262.9 | 27,558.5 | +15.6% | +2.6% |
Shares are calculated on total sales and add up to 100.0%.
Example formula: NXE = 10,445.8 / 32,667.3 = 32.0%.
Sales by region (€ mn, Note 3)
| Region | FY2025 | % of total | FY2024 | FY2023 | YoY 25/24 | YoY 24/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 9,519.7 | 29.1% | 10,195.1 | 7,251.8 | −6.6% | +40.6% |
| Taiwan | 8,337.9 | 25.5% | 4,354.0 | 8,074.6 | +91.5% | −46.1% |
| South Korea | 8,159.6 | 25.0% | 6,408.8 | 6,949.2 | +27.3% | −7.8% |
| United States | 4,089.1 | 12.5% | 4,521.8 | 3,151.4 | −9.6% | +43.5% |
| Japan | 1,420.9 | 4.3% | 1,156.0 | 613.6 | +22.9% | +88.4% |
| Singapore | 608.4 | 1.9% | 285.0 | 282.1 | +113.5% | +1.0% |
| EMEA | 524.3 | 1.6% | 1,322.1 | 1,206.8 | −60.3% | +9.6% |
| Netherlands | 4.7 | 0.0% | 16.6 | 25.1 | −71.7% | −33.9% |
| Rest of Asia | 2.7 | 0.0% | 3.5 | 3.9 | −22.9% | −10.3% |
| Total | 32,667.3 | 99.9% | 28,262.9 | 27,558.5 | +15.6% | +2.6% |
The rounded shares add up to 99.9%; the gap is a rounding effect, the amounts add up exactly.
Employees at 31 Dec 2025: 44,209 total FTEs (Note 18). Of these, 689 are temporary and the rest are payroll.
Signing management: the Board of Management has five members and its composition "remained unchanged in 2025". The CEO is Christophe D. Fouquet and the CFO is Roger J.M. Dassen. On 9 Oct 2025 ASML announced that the Supervisory Board "intends to add the role of Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to the Board of Management" from the 2026 AGM. The Board would thus have six members. Peter Wennink and Martin van den Brink, who left on 24 Apr 2024, appear in the comparative columns as "former Board of Management".
New items in the year compared with the comparative columns:
The document does not indicate which risk factors are new compared with the prior year.
The advantage rests on technology and on an exclusive supply alliance. In EUV lithography the document names no competitor, but it flags "competition from new competitors with substantial financial resources, as well as from those driven by the ambition of self-sufficiency in the geopolitical context". In DUV it writes: "We compete primarily with Canon and Nikon in respect of DUV systems". In applications supporting patterning, the competitors named are Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor.
In 2025 EUV (NXE plus EXE) generated €11,602.7 mn of sales, or 35.5% of the total.
Formulas: 10,445.8 + 1,156.9 = 11,602.7; 11,602.7 / 32,667.3 = 35.5%.
Carl Zeiss SMT is the sole supplier of optics, and ASML is its single customer for optical columns. The document describes the relationship as "two companies, one business". The exclusivity also appears among the risks (section 4).
The installed base generates growing recurring revenue: service and field options accounted for 20.4% of sales in FY2023 and 25.1% in FY2025. Remaining performance obligations amount to €46.5 bn at end-2025 (Note 2). A year earlier they were €43.3 bn.
The document does not publish price lists or price revisions. Average prices can be derived from Note 2 by dividing sales by units:
| Average price per system (€ mn) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | 2025 formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXE | 289.2 | 232.5 | — | 1,156.9 / 4 |
| NXE | 237.4 | 187.1 | 172.2 | 10,445.8 / 44 |
| ArF immersion | 78.7 | 74.9 | 72.1 | 10,311.4 / 131 |
| KrF | 12.8 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 1,001.3 / 78 |
The NXE average price rises by 26.9% (formula: 237.4 / 187.1 − 1). The document does not explain this change and does not separate price from mix. It attributes the gross margin increase to a "favorable NXE product mix", and the CFO cites "strong sales of the TWINSCAN NXE:3800E". The same CFO notes that upgrades on the installed base shifted "a substantial portion of EUV system revenue" into service sales; all else equal, this shift lowers the average system price.
The ArF immersion average price grows by 5.0%, while the KrF average price falls by 2.0%.
Formulas: 10,311.4 / 131 = 78.71; 9,667.0 / 129 = 74.94; 78.71 / 74.94 − 1 = 5.0%; KrF 12.84 / 13.10 − 1 = −2.0%.
The KrF decline is consistent with the risk of "price-based competition" that the document indicates for DUV.
Gross margin rises on both lines:
| Gross margin by line | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2025 formula |
|---|---|---|---|
| Systems | 53.5% | 52.2% | (24,474.3 − 11,384.0) / 24,474.3 |
| Service and field options | 50.9% | 48.2% | (8,193.0 − 4,025.3) / 8,193.0 |
The document itself flags a drag: EXE systems are "dilutive" to margin.
The "Acquisition of subsidiaries" line in the cash flow statement is zero in FY2025 and FY2024, and €33.6 mn in FY2023. Goodwill is unchanged at €4,588.6 mn. The 15.6% sales growth is therefore entirely organic in terms of scope. Mistral AI is a minority stake measured at cost and does not contribute to sales. The document does not quantify the currency effect on sales, so constant-currency growth cannot be isolated.
Growth is uneven across technologies and regions. Total units fall from 583 to 535, but system sales grow by 12.4%. The driver is EUV, whose units rise from 44 to 48 (NXE plus EXE). Taiwan grows by 91.5%, while China declines by 6.6%.
| Item | Growth FY2025/FY2024 | Growth FY2024/FY2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | +15.6% | +2.6% |
| Cost of sales | +11.9% | +2.6% |
| R&D | +9.2% | +8.1% |
| SG&A | +7.9% | +4.7% |
| Personnel expenses | +9.5% | +13.0% |
| Average payroll FTEs | +3.8% | +7.5% |
In FY2025 every cost line grows more slowly than sales, and operating margin rises from 31.9% to 34.6%. Sales per average payroll FTE grow by 11.4%.
Formulas: 11,301.4 / 32,667.3 = 34.6%; 28,262.9 / 41,697 = €677.8 thousand; 32,667.3 / 43,267 = €755.0 thousand; 755.0 / 677.8 − 1 = 11.4%.
FY2024 shows the opposite case. Sales grow by 2.6% and personnel expenses by 13.0%. Operating margin falls from 32.8% to 31.9%. The document acknowledges the risk: after the strong headcount growth "it would be difficult to adjust our costs adequately in a timely manner in the event of an industry downturn". After year-end, on 28 Jan 2026, ASML announced a net reduction of around 1,700 positions in the Technology and IT areas (Note 27).
| € mn | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | Chg. 25/24 | Chg. 24/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 32,667.3 | 28,262.9 | 27,558.5 | +15.6% | +2.6% |
| Cost of sales | (15,409.3) | (13,770.9) | (13,422.4) | +11.9% | +2.6% |
| Gross profit | 17,258.0 | 14,492.0 | 14,136.1 | +19.1% | +2.5% |
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 51.3% | 51.3% | +1.5 pp | 0.0 pp |
| R&D | (4,698.8) | (4,303.7) | (3,980.6) | +9.2% | +8.1% |
| SG&A | (1,257.8) | (1,165.7) | (1,113.2) | +7.9% | +4.7% |
| Operating income | 11,301.4 | 9,022.6 | 9,042.3 | +25.3% | −0.2% |
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 31.9% | 32.8% | +2.7 pp | −0.9 pp |
| Net financial income | 104.7 | 19.8 | 41.2 | n.m. | n.m. |
| Income before income taxes | 11,406.1 | 9,042.4 | 9,083.5 | +26.1% | −0.5% |
| Income taxes | (2,013.4) | (1,680.6) | (1,435.8) | +19.8% | +17.0% |
| Effective tax rate | 17.7% | 18.6% | 15.8% | −0.9 pp | +2.8 pp |
| Profit from Zeiss stake | 216.7 | 209.8 | 191.3 | +3.3% | +9.7% |
| Net income | 9,609.4 | 7,571.6 | 7,839.0 | +26.9% | −3.4% |
| Net margin | 29.4% | 26.8% | 28.4% | +2.6 pp | −1.6 pp |
| Basic EPS (€) | 24.73 | 19.25 | 19.91 | +28.5% | −3.3% |
| Diluted EPS (€) | 24.71 | 19.24 | 19.89 | +28.4% | −3.3% |
| Weighted average basic shares (mn) | 388.5 | 393.3 | 393.8 | −1.2% | −0.1% |
EPS grows faster than net income (+28.5% vs +26.9%) because buybacks reduced the average share count.
| Liquidity (€ mn) | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 12,916.0 | 12,735.9 |
| Short-term investments | 405.9 | 5.4 |
| Total liquidity | 13,321.9 | 12,741.3 |
| Debt (€ mn) | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Eurobond 1.375%, due 7 Jul 2026 | 991.3 | 967.7 |
| Eurobond 1.625%, due 28 May 2027 | 731.5 | 720.1 |
| Eurobond 0.625%, due 7 May 2029 | 748.7 | 748.3 |
| Eurobond 0.250%, due 25 Feb 2030 | 745.8 | 744.8 |
| Eurobond 2.250%, due 17 May 2032 | 465.5 | 478.2 |
| Eurobond 3.500%, due 6 Dec 2025 (repaid) | — | 1,010.3 |
| Berliner Glas loan | 16.4 | 18.2 |
| Total long-term debt | 3,699.2 | 4,687.6 |
| ECP commercial paper | 691.7 | 0.0 |
| Lease liabilities | 251.4 | 306.0 |
| Gross debt | 4,642.3 | 4,993.6 |
Checks:
| Summary (€ mn) | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Dec 2024 | 2025 formula |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shareholders' equity | 19,612.2 | 18,476.8 | BS |
| Net financial position (net cash) | +8,679.6 | +7,747.7 | 13,321.9 − 4,642.3 |
Three items remain outside the net financial position. Loans to Carl Zeiss SMT amount to €1,907.5 mn (carrying amount). The Mistral AI stake has a carrying amount of €1,320.7 mn. Contract liabilities amount to €19,372.6 mn and are mostly customer down payments: they fund working capital, but correspond to future deliveries.
| € mn | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 12,658.5 | 11,166.2 | 5,443.4 |
| Capex (PP&E + intangibles) | (1,631.2) | (2,083.1) | (2,196.2) |
| FCF | 11,027.3 | 9,083.1 | 3,247.2 |
| SBC | 202.3 | 172.6 | 134.8 |
| FCF net of SBC | 10,825.0 | 8,910.5 | 3,112.4 |
| Income taxes paid in cash | 1,621.4 | 1,098.0 | 2,568.3 |
| Buybacks | 5,950.0 | 500.0 | 1,000.0 |
| Dividends paid | 2,550.3 | 2,452.9 | 2,348.3 |
| Total returned to shareholders | 8,500.3 | 2,952.9 | 3,348.3 |
Formulas:
SBC equals 0.62% of sales and 2.11% of net income.
Formulas: 202.3 / 32,667.3 = 0.62%; 202.3 / 9,609.4 = 2.11%.
Shares outstanding fell by 2.0% during the year (formula: 385,417,665 / 393,283,720 − 1). In 2025 ASML repurchased 8,323,320 shares at an average price of €714.86 (Note 22). New shares issued for share plans were 457,265 (formula: 385,417,665 − (393,283,720 − 8,323,320)); the SE statement reports 0.4 million, rounded. Buybacks therefore more than offset dilution.
Operating cash flow is volatile because of customer down payments. The change in contract assets and liabilities absorbed €1,564.6 mn in FY2023. In FY2025 it generated €1,122.4 mn instead (CF).
Income taxes paid in cash equaled 80.5% of the income statement tax charge in FY2025 and 178.9% in FY2023.
Formulas: 1,621.4 / 2,013.4 = 80.5%; 2,568.3 / 1,435.8 = 178.9%.
Owner earnings (net income + D&A − total capex). SBC is not subtracted because it is already an expense within net income. Total capex is used instead of maintenance capex, which the document does not separate.
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 31.9% | 32.8% |
| EBITDA (EBIT + D&A) | 12,327.3 | 9,941.2 | 9,782.1 |
| R&D / sales | 14.4% | 15.2% | 14.4% |
| Capex / sales | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% |
| FCF / net income | 114.8% | 120.0% | 41.4% |
| ROIC (year-end invested capital) | 85.1% | 68.5% | n.a. |
| Gross debt / EBITDA | 0.38x | 0.50x | n.a. |
| Net debt / EBITDA | −0.70x (net cash) | −0.78x (net cash) | n.a. |
| Interest coverage | 95.5x | 55.5x | 59.2x |
Formulas (FY2025, with FY2024 where useful):
Multiples (market data external to the document)
Inputs: share price of €921.40 at 31 Dec 2025 and 385,417,665 shares outstanding at 31 Dec 2025.
| Multiple | Formula | Result |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 355,123.8 / 9,609.4 | 36.96x |
| P/E on diluted EPS | 921.40 / 24.71 | 37.29x |
| P/FCF | 355,123.8 / 11,027.3 | 32.20x |
| FCF yield | 11,027.3 / 355,123.8 | 3.11% |
| FCF yield net of SBC | 10,825.0 / 355,123.8 | 3.05% |
| Owner earnings yield | 9,004.1 / 355,123.8 | 2.54% |
| P/S | 355,123.8 / 32,667.3 | 10.87x |
| P/BV | 355,123.8 / 19,612.2 | 18.11x |
| EV/EBIT | 346,444.2 / 11,301.4 | 30.65x |
| EV/EBITDA | 346,444.2 / 12,327.3 | 28.10x |
| Dividend yield (2025 DPS, final proposed to the AGM) | 7.50 / 921.40 | 0.81% |
Consistency check with the document: in December 2025 ASML repurchased shares at an average price of €934.45 (Note 22). The €921.40 price at 31 Dec 2025 is 1.4% below that monthly average (formula: 921.40 / 934.45 − 1).
Export controls and China. The document writes: "deliveries to certain countries, such as China, have been increasingly impacted by export regulations". China accounts for 29.1% of 2025 sales (formula: 9,519.7 / 32,667.3). In 2024 it accounted for 36.1%. The risk has already materialized: licenses are required for EUV and for certain DUV immersion systems, and US measures "have restricted, and may continue to restrict" the supply of products and services. It matters because the CFO indicates that in 2025 DUV business in China "turned out to be stronger than anticipated" and offset DUV weakness elsewhere.
Customer concentration. Four customers each exceeded 10% of sales, for a total of €20.0 bn (Note 3). Together they account for 61.2% of sales. The largest customer accounts for €7,796.7 mn, or 23.9%, against 16.6% in 2024. The two largest customers account for 38.0%. The risk is potential, but the largest customer's share is rising. At end-2025 the three largest customers represent 35.4% of accounts and finance receivables.
Sole supplier of optics. The document writes that if Carl Zeiss SMT were unable to maintain production of optics over a prolonged period, "we would effectively cease to be able to conduct our business". Purchases from the Zeiss group were €4,406.9 mn in 2025 (Note 26). The quantified portion of the maximum exposure to loss is €3,923.1 mn.
Formula: 1,191.9 + 1,907.5 + 822.6 + 1.1 = 3,923.1 (advances, loans, equity stake, receivables).
To this the document adds the risk of future operating losses of Zeiss, "which cannot be quantified". The risk is potential, but the financial commitment is growing. Loans rose from €1,440.8 mn to €1,907.5 mn, and those granted from 2025 are interest-free.
Geopolitics in Taiwan and South Korea. In 2025 Taiwan accounts for 25.5% of sales and South Korea for 25.0%. The document cites Taiwan's "unique international political status" and the risk of conflict with North Korea. ASML also has manufacturing sites in Linkou and Tainan (Taiwan) and Pyeongtaek (South Korea). The risk is potential.
Cyclicality, capacity and cost structure. The document states that "Capital expenditures by some customers have declined compared to prior years". Inventories are €11,429.3 mn, equal to about 271 days of cost of sales (year-end balance).
Formula: 11,429.3 / 15,409.3 × 365 = 270.7.
Purchase obligations amount to €12.7 bn (Note 17). The risk has partly materialized: in FY2024 sales grew by 2.6% and net income fell by 3.4%.
Technology execution on EUV High NA. The document calls EUV 0.55 NA technology "essential to advancing Moore's Law" and makes its success conditional on "continued technical progress by both us and our suppliers". Recognized EXE systems rise to 4 (2024: 2), but they are "dilutive" to gross margin. The 2025 STI sub-target "EUV 0.55 NA insertion" was not achieved: 0.0% pay-out (section 8). The document does not explain why.
Favorable tax regime. The 17.7% effective tax rate depends on the Dutch Innovation Box, worth 9.3 percentage points of tax rate (Note 21). In absolute terms the benefit is €1,055.8 mn. The agreement with the tax authorities covers 2024-2028. The risk is potential: the document writes that a change in these incentives "may have an adverse effect on our worldwide effective tax rate".
Cybersecurity and intellectual property. The document states: "We have experienced and may in the future experience misappropriation attacks by third parties or our employees, including theft of IP". The risk has therefore already materialized in the past, with no damage figure disclosed. It matters because the competitive advantage is technological.
Shareholder rights. ASML is subject to the "structuurregime", which concentrates certain decisions in the Supervisory Board. The preference shares foundation can exercise an option that "would effectively dilute the voting power of our outstanding ordinary shares by one-half". The risk is potential and mainly concerns value in the event of a public offer.
Litigation: the document states that "ASML does not have any material contingencies which are considered probable or reasonably possible" (Note 17). No fines paid or lawsuits lost with disclosed amounts are reported.
The structure is the Dutch two-tier model. The Board of Management has five members: Christophe D. Fouquet (President, CEO and Chair), Roger J.M. Dassen (CFO), Frédéric J.M. Schneider-Maunoury (COO), Wayne R. Allan (Chief Strategic Sourcing & Procurement Officer) and James P. Koonmen (Chief Customer Officer). The Supervisory Board has nine members and is chaired by Nils Andersen, Chair since 2023.
Each ordinary share carries one vote and there are no special voting rights. Shareholders above the disclosure thresholds, as of 18 Feb 2026, are two:
Board members holding shares (8 persons, according to the document) own a combined 51,095 shares, or 0.01%. The anti-takeover protection is the preference shares foundation; the document states that there are no other mechanisms.
Total Board of Management remuneration in 2025 was €24.3 million. The CEO received €7,021 thousand, a ratio of 46:1 to average pay per FTE. The STI paid out 142.5% of target. The LTI 2023-2025 paid out 137.4%. The STI is 60% tied to EBIT margin; the LTI 2025-2027 is tied to relative TSR, ROAIC, technology leadership and ESG targets.
Related parties: the only material one is the Carl Zeiss SMT group, in which ASML holds 24.9% (Note 26). The document states that there are no loans to Board members. CFO Dassen "joined the Strategic Committee of Mistral AI as a member in 2025". Mistral AI is the company in which ASML invested €1.3 bn, but the document does not classify it as a related party.
Auditor: PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers Accountants N.V.) signed the report on FY2025 and states "We have served as the Company's auditor since 2024". KPMG's report on FY2024 states "We served as the Company's auditor from 2015 to 2025". FY2025 is therefore the first fiscal year audited by PwC.
The consolidated financial statements in the 20-F are prepared under US GAAP. The Dutch statutory financial statements, which are not covered here, follow EU-IFRS instead. In 2025 ASML adopted ASU 2023-09 on income tax disclosures, prospectively and "with no impact on the financial statements". ASU 2024-03 on expense disaggregation has been issued but not yet adopted. The document reports no restatements of comparative figures.
Critical Audit Matter: PwC identifies a single CAM, "Revenue recognition – Identification of distinct performance obligations in volume purchase agreements". The choice is consistent with the business model: multi-year contracts with systems, options, installation and warranties allocated across multiple obligations.
Accounting choices that move earnings:
GAAP / non-GAAP difference: ASML does not publish adjusted earnings. The non-GAAP measures in the document are free cash flow, EBIT margin, ROAIC and the normalized cash conversion rate. The latter excludes "early payments received in a certain financial year from customers without a contractual payment obligation in that financial year". There are no items excluded from earnings to list.
Taxes: the effective tax rate is 17.7% (formula: 2,013.4 / 11,406.1). The Dutch statutory rate is 25.8%. The 2025 reconciliation (Note 21) is as follows:
| Item | € mn | Tax rate points |
|---|---|---|
| Tax at the statutory rate | (2,942.8) | 25.80 |
| Innovation Box (incentive) | 1,055.8 | −9.26 |
| Foreign effects | (117.7) | +1.03 |
| Other items, net | (8.7) | +0.08 |
| Effective tax | (2,013.4) | 17.65 |
Checks:
The "Adjustments in respect of tax incentives" line corresponds to the Innovation Box, which the document describes as "the only reconciling item exceeding the 5% threshold". The decline from 18.6% in 2024 is attributed to "a correction for a historic tax position recognized in 2024".
2026 guidance. The document indicates "total net sales of between €34 billion and €39 billion". Expected gross margin is between 51% and 53%. Compared with 2025, the range implies sales growth of between 4.1% and 19.4%.
Formulas: 34,000 / 32,667.3 − 1 = 4.1%; 39,000 / 32,667.3 − 1 = 19.4%. The document adds that the outlook "has strengthened significantly in the final months of 2025".
Contracted order book. Remaining performance obligations are €46.5 bn, and 65% is expected within the next 12 months. That is about €30.2 bn (formula: 46.5 × 65%). The CEO writes that the backlog "currently stands at a healthy level of €38.8 billion", without stating the reference date. The document does not reconcile the two figures.
EUV High NA adoption. Recognized EXE systems went from 2 to 4. Related sales rose to €1,156.9 mn, from €465.0 mn. The guidance calls for EUV sales "significantly higher" in 2026, "driven by advanced node ramps".
Service growth on the EUV installed base. Service and field option sales grew by 26.2% in 2025. The document expects "another year of growth" in 2026, linked to the EUV base and productivity upgrades.
New buyback program. The program announced on 28 Jan 2026 provides for repurchases of up to €12 bn, to be completed by 31 Dec 2028. It equals 3.4% of market capitalization at 31 Dec 2025 (formula: 12,000 / 355,123.8).
2030 opportunity. The document confirms a 2030 sales opportunity of between approximately €44 bn and €60 bn. Expected gross margin is between 56% and 60%. Compared with 2025, the sales range implies a compound annual growth rate of between 6.1% and 12.9%.
Formulas: (44 / 32.67)^(1/5) − 1 = 6.1%; (60 / 32.67)^(1/5) − 1 = 12.9%.
The document does not report the numerical 2025 sales guidance published a year earlier. The CFO writes "In line with expectations" without giving figures, so a comparison between expected and actual sales is not possible. The document does, however, allow a comparison of targets set at the start of the period in the incentive plans and the financial commitments.
| Item | Stated | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 EBIT margin (STI target set at the start of 2025 "taking into account the annual plan (forecast)") | 30.5% (threshold 28.0%, maximum 33.0%) | 34.6% | +4.1 pp vs target, above the maximum |
| STI sub-target "EUV 0.55 NA insertion" | target not disclosed | 0.0% pay-out | target missed |
| STI sub-target "Adoption of multibeam" | target not disclosed | 75.0% pay-out | below target |
| Normalized cash conversion rate 2023-2025 (LTI) | 90.0% | 92.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Technology Leadership Index 2023-2025 (LTI) | 6 | 8.4 | +2.4 |
| Relative TSR 2023-2025 (LTI) | 202.8% | 203.9% | +1.1 pp |
| 2022-2025 buyback program | up to €12.0 bn | €7.6 bn at completion (December 2025) | −€4.4 bn, 63.3% executed (7.6 / 12.0) |
| Growing dividend ("sustainable dividend per share that will grow over time") | growth | €6.10 (2023), €6.40 (2024), €7.50 (2025, with a final €2.70 proposed to the AGM) | +4.9% in 2024 (6.40 / 6.10 − 1), +17.2% in 2025 (7.50 / 6.40 − 1), the latter subject to the AGM vote |
| 2021 loan to Zeiss | up to €1.0 bn | €87.6 mn undrawn, cancelled at 30 Sep 2024 | facility not fully used; prior-year event |
| 2030 opportunity (Investor Day, November 2024) | €44-60 bn, gross margin 56-60% | confirmed unchanged | not verifiable before 2030 |
At the price of €921.40 on 31 Dec 2025, the market pays 36.96 times 2025 earnings and 32.20 times FCF. The FCF yield is 3.11%. The owner earnings yield is 2.54%.
With earnings flat at the 2025 level, the earnings yield would be 2.71% (formula: 9,609.4 / 355,123.8). A starting yield at this level on a cyclical business holds up only if earnings grow for many years. The document gives a 2030 sales range that implies annual growth of between 6.1% and 12.9%: the price assumes growth stays within this range, not that it falls outside it.
The thesis holds under three conditions: EUV, including High NA, remains the only technology for advanced nodes; export controls do not further compress the China share; the Zeiss exclusivity continues to secure capacity without absorbing growing shares of ASML cash. On the document's numbers, business quality is high. The margin of safety, measured by yields at the given price, is thin. In FY2024, with sales almost flat, net income fell by 3.4%: a similar year would reduce the growth on which a 37 times multiple rests.
The given price is 1.4% below the average December 2025 buyback price (section 3): at year-end the market valued the shares in line with the price at which the company itself was buying them back.
Metrics to monitor in the coming quarters:
Document: ASML Annual Report 2025 (Annual Report on Form 20-F of ASML Holding N.V.); fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2025; signed on 25 Feb 2026. The share price of €921.40 at 31 Dec 2025 and the 385,417,665 shares outstanding at 31 Dec 2025 used for the multiples are market data provided externally and not taken from the document. This report is for analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
The full data table behind this report — every line item with its source in the filing and the arithmetic checks — is published separately: ASML FY2025 data table.