ExxonMobil finds and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines and trades fuels, and makes petrochemicals and specialty products. It sells mostly commodities at prevailing market prices under short-term agreements, with payment typically due within 30 days. Four segments carry the business — Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products and Specialty Products — with Low Carbon Solutions still inside Corporate and Financing until it has a material level of assets and revenue. 57.9 thousand regular employees worked there at year end, down from 60.9 thousand.
The business in one page
External revenue describes this company badly. Upstream shows 12.2% of external sales and produced 74.0% of net income, because most of its output is sold to the other segments and eliminated on consolidation. Energy Products carries 75.5% of external revenue because refining resells purchased crude as fuel, and the revenue line itself embeds US$184.2 billion of crude and product purchases and US$25.2 billion of excise-type taxes reported gross.
The year was a price year. Production rose 9.3% to 4,736 thousand oil-equivalent barrels a day and unit production cost fell 3.1% to US$10.20 a barrel, while realised crude fell 14.5% to US$65.18; the company’s own driver analysis puts price at minus US$6.1 billion against plus US$3.3 billion from volume and cost savings. Net income fell 14.4% to US$28,844 million and Upstream accounts for US$4,036 million of that fall. Refining recovered, with earnings per barrel processed up to US$5.11 from US$2.83, while Chemical Products earned US$38 a tonne against US$133, at margins the company itself calls below the 2010–2019 range.
Three things sit against the result. Dividends and buybacks of US$37,504 million exceeded free cash flow of US$23,612 million, cash fell US$12,348 million to US$10,681 million against US$9,296 million of short-term debt, and net debt rose US$14,175 million to US$32,856 million. U.S. Upstream, where the US$68 billion Pioneer acquisition sits, earned 4.3% on US$118 billion of average capital employed, against 17.7% non-U.S. And half the asset base depends on reserves estimates: the auditor’s critical audit matter covers US$228.2 billion of Upstream property, consolidated revisions cut 929 million barrels, and about 1.0 billion barrels of proved undeveloped reserves were reclassified out of proved — the document does not say why.
Figures for 3 fiscal years, taken from the Key Metrics tables of each annual report. When a later filing restates a figure, we use the figure reported for that year's own filing.
Key metrics
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $334.7B | $339.2B | $323.9B |
| Net margin (GAAP) | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% |
| Operating cash flow | $55.4B | $55.0B | $52.0B |
| Capex | $21.9B | $24.3B | $28.4B |
| Free cash flow | $33.5B | $30.7B | $23.6B |
| Stock-based compensation | $0.60B | $0.80B | $1.00B |
| Dividends + buybacks | $32.7B | $36.3B | $37.5B |
| Net cash | -$10.0B | -$18.7B | -$32.9B |
| Total debt | $41.6B | $41.7B | $43.5B |
| Shareholders’ equity | $204.8B | $263.7B | $259.4B |
| Effective tax rate | 29.2% | 28.3% | 27.9% |
| Our construction: NOPAT on year-end invested capital (10.26% on average capital) | 17.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
How Exxon Mobil makes money
Competitive advantage
The evidence in the document is cost and scale, not price: average production cost of US$10.20 per oil-equivalent barrel against a realised crude price of US$65.18, and 17.7% return on average capital employed in non-U.S. Upstream even at 2025 prices.
Proved reserves of 19,311 million oil-equivalent barrels cover 10.96 years of the production recorded in the reserves tables.
The company also claims the largest refining footprint among international oil companies and over 8 thousand active patents; these are statements of the company, not measurements.
Two figures limit the case: Chemical Products earned 2.7% on its capital, so integration did not shield it from oversupply, and U.S. Upstream, where Pioneer was added, earned 4.3%. Whether the advantage is widening or narrowing cannot be established from the document.
Pricing power
There is none on the main products, and the figures say so: realised crude fell 14.50% while Brent fell 14.49% over the same year.
The company describes refining and chemical earnings as primarily determined by margin capture rather than absolute price levels.
The only segment whose unit earnings held is Specialty Products, at about US$367 per tonne in 2025 between US$357 in 2023 and US$398 in 2024, on a 35.4% return on capital employed. It is 9.9% of 2025 net income.
Transparency of growth
Pioneer closed on 3 May 2024, so 2025 carries twelve months of it against eight in 2024, and the document does not report Pioneer’s 2025 contribution.
The cleanest comparison the filing allows is against unaudited pro forma 2024: revenue 6.76% lower and net income 16.34% lower.
On volumes, the reconciliation attributes 525 thousand barrels a day of growth to “Growth/Other” and subtracts 133 for divestments. The businesses divested in 2025 — France refining and chemicals, Singapore retail fuels, Argentina, U.S. assets — are named, but their revenue and earnings are not.
Scalability
Costs grew while revenue fell: against revenue down 4.5%, production and manufacturing expenses rose 7.1%, SG&A 11.5%, depreciation 10.9% and exploration 21.9%.
Part of that is new capacity entering the cost base — a full year of Pioneer, Tengiz depreciation, the China ramp-up — which the driver analysis names.
Per unit the picture differs: production cost per barrel fell 3.1%, and cash operating expenses excluding energy taxes of US$44.1 billion are level with 2019’s US$44.0 billion, after US$15.1 billion of cumulative savings (a company non-GAAP measure).
The company runs a larger volume on a flat cash cost base. Earnings did not follow because price fell faster.
Catalysts identified in the filing
- Golden Pass LNG
Train 1 reached mechanical completion in late 2025, with first LNG production expected in the first quarter of 2026 on the company’s 30% equity stake.
- Guyana vessels
Uaru and Whiptail, each about 250 thousand barrels a day of gross capacity, are stated to be progressing on schedule, and Hammerhead is sanctioned for 2029. The company anticipates eight production vessels by year-end 2030 against four operating now.
- Permian to 2.5 million barrels a day
The company expects Permian production to reach approximately 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels a day by 2030, from 1.6 million in 2025, on a unit cost that fell again in 2025.
- The China chemical complex
Over 2.5 million tonnes a year started up in 2025 and will contribute in proportion to chemical margins, which the company places below their ten-year range.
- Cost programme and working capital
US$15.1 billion of savings against 2019 stand against a stated US$20 billion by 2030, and the US$7,728 million of working capital absorbed in 2025 would lift 2026 free cash flow if it reverses, with no change in the business.
Financial analysis
Click any line to chart it.
| Income statement · $ millions | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales and other operating revenue ("revenue") | 334,697 | 339,247 | 323,905 | IS |
| % change year on year | – | 1.4% | -4.5% | computed |
| Income from equity affiliates | 6,385 | 6,194 | 5,064 | IS |
| Other income | 3,500 | 4,144 | 3,269 | IS |
| Total revenues and other income | 344,582 | 349,585 | 332,238 | IS |
| Crude oil and product purchases | 193,029 | 199,454 | 184,248 | IS |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 36,885 | 39,609 | 42,424 | IS |
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 9,919 | 9,976 | 11,128 | IS |
| Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) | 20,641 | 23,442 | 25,993 | IS |
| Exploration expenses, including dry holes | 751 | 826 | 1,007 | IS |
| Non-service pension and postretirement benefit expense | 714 | 121 | 400 | IS |
| Interest expense | 849 | 996 | 603 | IS |
| Other taxes and duties | 29,011 | 26,288 | 25,167 | IS |
| Total costs and other deductions | 291,799 | 300,712 | 290,970 | IS |
| Income before income taxes | 52,783 | 48,873 | 41,268 | IS |
| Income tax expense | 15,429 | 13,810 | 11,504 | IS |
| Net income including noncontrolling interests | 37,354 | 35,063 | 29,764 | IS |
| Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests | 1,344 | 1,383 | 920 | IS |
| Net income attributable to ExxonMobil | 36,010 | 33,680 | 28,844 | IS |
| % net margin | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | computed |
| EPS, basic (US$) | 9 | 8 | 7 | IS; Note 2 |
| EPS, diluted (US$) | 9 | 8 | 7 | IS; Note 2 (basic and diluted identical in all years) |
| Weighted-average shares, basic (million) | 4,052 | 4,298 | 4,305 | Note 2 |
| Weighted-average shares, diluted (million) | 4,052 | 4,298 | 4,305 | Note 2, footnote 2 |
| Shares outstanding at cover date (31/01/2026) | – | – | 4,166,763,453 shares | Cover page |
| Shares outstanding at year end (million) | 3,971 | 4,353 | 4,179 | EQ, share activity |
| Dividends paid per share (US$) | 4 | 4 | 4 | Note 2 |
| Research and development costs | 879 | 987 | 1,228 | FI; Note 14 |
| Regular employees at year end (thousand) | 62 | 61 | 58 | FI; Item 1 |
| Balance sheet · $ millions | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents (unrestricted) | not available | 23,029 | 10,681 | BS |
| Cash and cash equivalents – restricted | not available | 158 | – | BS |
| Cash including restricted | 31,568 | 23,187 | 10,681 | CF |
| Marketable securities | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable (none reported) | BS |
| Notes and accounts receivable, net | not available | 43,681 | 44,562 | BS; Note 10 |
| Inventories – crude oil, products and merchandise | not available | 19,444 | 22,979 | BS; Note 14 |
| Inventories – materials and supplies | not available | 4,080 | 3,323 | BS |
| Other current assets | not available | 1,598 | 1,837 | BS |
| Total current assets | not available | 91,990 | 83,382 | BS |
| Investments, advances and long-term receivables | not available | 47,200 | 45,317 | BS; Note 11 |
| PP&E, net | 214,940 | 294,318 | 299,373 | BS; FI |
| Other assets, including intangibles, net | not available | 19,967 | 20,908 | BS |
| Total assets | 376,317 | 453,475 | 448,980 | BS; FI |
| Notes and loans payable | 4,090 | 4,955 | 9,296 | BS; FUT |
| Accounts payable and accrued liabilities | not available | 61,297 | 60,911 | BS; Note 10 |
| Income taxes payable | not available | 4,055 | 2,123 | BS |
| Total current liabilities | not available | 70,307 | 72,330 | BS |
| Long-term debt | 37,483 | 36,755 | 34,241 | BS; FI |
| Postretirement benefits reserves | not available | 9,700 | 8,847 | BS |
| Deferred income tax liabilities | not available | 39,042 | 40,216 | BS |
| Long-term obligations to equity companies | not available | 1,346 | 542 | BS |
| Other long-term obligations | not available | 25,719 | 26,178 | BS |
| Total liabilities | not available | 182,869 | 182,354 | BS |
| Common stock without par value | 17,781 | 46,238 | 46,150 | BS; EQ |
| Earnings reinvested | 453,927 | 470,903 | 482,494 | BS; EQ |
| Accumulated other comprehensive income | (11,989) | (14,619) | (10,863) | BS; EQ |
| Common stock held in treasury | (254,917) | (238,817) | (258,395) | BS; EQ |
| ExxonMobil share of equity | 204,802 | 263,705 | 259,386 | BS; EQ |
| Noncontrolling interests | 7,736 | 6,901 | 7,240 | BS; EQ |
| Total equity | 212,538 | 270,606 | 266,626 | BS; EQ |
| ExxonMobil share of equity per share, year-end shares (US$, company figure) | 52 | 61 | 62 | FI |
| Cash flow statement · $ millions | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income including noncontrolling interests | 37,354 | 35,063 | 29,764 | CF |
| Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) | 20,641 | 23,442 | 25,993 | CF |
| Deferred income tax charges/(credits) | 634 | (865) | 765 | CF |
| Postretirement benefits expense in excess of/(less than) net payments | 90 | (358) | (64) | CF |
| Other long-term obligation provisions in excess of/(less than) payments | (1,501) | (1,712) | (1,430) | CF |
| Dividends received greater than/(less than) equity in current earnings of equity companies | 509 | 191 | 3,006 | CF |
| Notes and accounts receivable reduction/(increase) | 4,370 | (6,030) | (3,042) | CF |
| Inventories reduction/(increase) | (3,472) | (1,812) | (4,300) | CF |
| Other current assets reduction/(increase) | (426) | 389 | (164) | CF |
| Accounts and other payables increase/(reduction) | (4,727) | 5,627 | (222) | CF |
| Net (gain)/loss on asset sales | (513) | (1,223) | (1,113) | CF |
| All other items, net | 2,410 | 2,310 | 2,777 | CF |
| Net cash provided by operating activities | 55,369 | 55,022 | 51,970 | CF |
| Additions to PP&E (capex, cash) | (21,919) | (24,306) | (28,358) | CF |
| Proceeds from asset sales and returns of investments | 4,078 | 4,987 | 3,158 | CF |
| Additional investments and advances | (2,995) | (3,299) | (4,133) | CF |
| Other investing activities including collection of advances | 1,562 | 1,926 | 3,406 | CF |
| Cash acquired from mergers and acquisitions | – | 754 | – | CF |
| Net cash used in investing activities | (19,274) | (19,938) | (25,927) | CF |
| Additions to long-term debt | 939 | 899 | 2,311 | CF |
| Reductions in long-term debt | (15) | (1,150) | (1,108) | CF |
| Additions to short-term debt | – | – | 2,359 | CF |
| Reductions in short-term debt | (879) | (4,743) | (5,404) | CF |
| Additions/(reductions) in commercial paper and debt ≤ 3 months | (284) | (18) | 1,895 | CF |
| Contingent consideration payments | (68) | (27) | (79) | CF |
| Cash dividends to ExxonMobil shareholders | (14,941) | (16,704) | (17,231) | CF |
| Cash dividends to noncontrolling interests | (531) | (658) | (935) | CF |
| Changes in noncontrolling interests | (894) | (791) | (704) | CF |
| Inflows from noncontrolling interests for major projects | 124 | 32 | 88 | CF |
| Common stock acquired (buyback, cash) | (17,748) | (19,629) | (20,273) | CF |
| Net cash used in financing activities | (34,297) | (42,789) | (39,081) | CF |
| Effect of exchange rate changes | 105 | (676) | 532 | CF |
| Increase/(decrease) in cash incl. restricted | 1,903 | (8,381) | (12,506) | CF |
| Income taxes paid in cash | 15,473 | 13,293 | 11,563 | Note 15 |
| Cash interest paid, total | 1,736 | 1,900 | 1,752 | Note 17 |
| of which capitalized (in investing activities) | 1,152 | 1,276 | 1,534 | Note 17 |
| Stock-based compensation cost charged against income | ≈600 | ≈800 | ≈1,000 ("$1.0 billion") | Note 18 |
| Amortization of stock-based awards (equity statement) | 565 | 735 | 812 | EQ |
| Cash Capex (non-GAAP, company measure) | not available | 25,647 | 28,997 | FUT |
| Cash flow from operations and asset sales (non-GAAP) | 59,447 | 60,009 | 55,128 | FUT |
| Per share · $ per diluted share | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 82.60 | 78.93 | 75.24 | computed |
| Net income | 8.89 | 7.84 | 6.70 | computed |
| Free cash flow | 8.26 | 7.15 | 5.49 | computed |
| Shareholders' equity | 50.54 | 61.36 | 60.25 | computed |
Computed on the weighted average diluted share count the filing reports (4,305 million in FY2025, 4,298 in FY2024, 4,052 in FY2023), checked against the diluted earnings per share printed in the filing (US$6.70, US$7.84, US$8.89). Free cash flow per share uses our free cash flow, operating cash flow less additions to property, plant and equipment; the company does not report it. Equity is ExxonMobil’s share of equity, so the figure is lower than the company’s own book value per share, which divides by year-end shares.
| Ratios · percent | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns and margins | ||||
| Revenue growth | – | 1.4% | -4.5% | computed |
| Net margin | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | from the statements |
| Our construction: NOPAT on year-end invested capital (10.26% on average capital) | 17.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% | our construction |
| Effective tax rate | 29.2% | 28.3% | 27.9% | from the statements |
| Cash | ||||
| Operating cash flow / revenue | 16.5% | 16.2% | 16.0% | computed |
| Capital expenditure / revenue | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | computed |
| Free cash flow / revenue | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | computed |
| Stock-based compensation / revenue | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | computed |
| Dividends and buybacks / free cash flow | 97.7% | 118.3% | 158.8% | computed |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Total debt / equity | 20.3% | 15.8% | 16.8% | computed |
| Net cash / equity | -4.9% | -7.1% | -12.7% | computed |
Every ratio is computed from the figures in the statements on the left; none is a target or a benchmark.
The three statements as the Form 10-K presents them, with the items the company itself reports. The income statement presents no cost of goods sold, no gross profit and no operating income, so no margin line can be taken from it; EBIT and EBITDA appear only in the ratios tab and are declared constructions. Amounts in US$ million.
Operating measures
| Measure | FY2025 | FY2024 | Change / detail | Where in the filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream: oil-equivalent production (kboe/d) | 4,736 | 4,333 | +9.3%; a record for the company | Item 2; MD&A |
| Upstream: earnings per barrel produced (US$) | 12.35 | 16.05 | −23.1%; our construction, Note 3 earnings / production | Note 3; Item 2 |
| Energy Products: refinery throughput (kb/d) | 3,979 | 3,900 | +2.0% | MD&A |
| Energy Products: earnings per barrel processed (US$) | 5.11 | 2.83 | +80.6%; US$4.78 before identified items | Note 3; MD&A |
| Chemical Products: sales volume (thousand tonnes) | 21,303 | 19,392 | +9.9% | MD&A |
| Chemical Products: earnings per tonne (US$) | ~38 | ~133 | −71.7%; US$50 before identified items | Note 3; MD&A |
| Specialty Products: earnings per tonne (US$) | ~367 | ~398 | on 7,791 thousand tonnes, 9.9% of net income | Note 3; MD&A |
| Average realised crude price (US$/bbl) | 65.18 | 76.23 | −14.5%; Brent fell 14.5% | Item 2 |
| Average realised gas price (US$/kcf) | 4.28 | 4.53 | −5.5% | Item 2 |
| Average production cost (US$/boe) | 10.20 | 10.53 | −3.1%, the third consecutive fall | Item 2 |
| Proved reserves (million oil-equivalent barrels) | 19,311 | not comparable | 36% undeveloped; 10.96 years of the production in the reserves tables | Item 2; SUPP |
| Organic reserve replacement | 64.8% | 153.3% | our construction: extensions plus revisions over production | SUPP |
| Return on average capital employed (company) | 9.3% | 12.7% | company definition, on US$305,775M of average capital | FUT |
| ROCE: U.S. / non-U.S. Upstream | 4.3% / 17.7% | 7.5% / 20.3% | U.S. is where the Pioneer assets sit | BP |
| ROCE: Energy / Chemical / Specialty | 19.7% / 2.7% / 35.4% | 11.7% / 8.9% / 37.1% | company segment returns | BP |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 69.06 | 80.76 | sensitivity: US$1 moves Upstream earnings about US$700M after tax, stated for 2026 | MD&A |
| Regular employees at year end (thousand) | 57.9 | 60.9 | −4.9%; US$419M of restructuring booked with no note | Item 1 |
Documents behind these figures: Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 — FY2023-FY2025 · 2026 Proxy Statement — ownership, compensation, related parties, project milestones
Key risks
The main weaknesses and risks identified in the latest annual report, in the order the report presents them.
- Distributions of US$37,504 million against free cash flow of US$23,612 million
Shareholders received 158.8% of free cash flow and 130.0% of net income. Cash fell US$12,348 million to US$10,681 million against US$9,296 million of short-term debt, the company issued US$3,059 million of commercial paper and set up a 364-day US$7.0 billion credit line, and it has stated a US$20 billion buyback pace for 2026.
- The U.S. capital does not yet earn
U.S. Upstream returned 4.3% on US$118 billion of average capital employed, against 17.7% non-U.S. Pioneer cost about US$68 billion including assumed debt and earned about 3.7% on a pro forma 2024 basis; the document does not report what it earned in 2025. The incremental return on the capital added since 2023 is negative 10.1%, although price explains more than the whole decline.
- Chemical earnings per tonne fell 71.7% while the company added capacity
Chemical Products earned about US$38 a tonne against US$133, and 2.7% on US$29.5 billion of average capital employed, with non-U.S. chemicals at a loss of US$103 million. In the same year ExxonMobil started its own China complex, over 2.5 million tonnes a year, equal to 11.7% of its 2025 chemical sales, at margins it describes as below the 2010–2019 range.
- Half the balance sheet rests on reserves estimates that were revised down
Upstream property is US$228,235 million net, 50.8% of total assets, depreciated by reserves. Consolidated revisions cut 929 million barrels, 5.5% of opening consolidated reserves, and about 1.0 billion barrels left proved undeveloped with no reason given. The price assumptions behind impairment tests come from an undisclosed Corporate Plan, and the company states it cannot estimate a range of future impairments.
- Buybacks bought a smaller yield each year
The 180.1 million shares bought in 2025 at an average of US$111.05 cost 20.2 times that year’s free cash flow per share, against 16.0 times in 2024 and 13.2 times in 2023 — a yield falling from 7.57% to 4.94%. Spending rose from about US$18 billion to US$20 billion while the multiple rose by half, so the programme was not sized to the price paid.
Open questions the filing does not answer
- Why did about 1.0 billion barrels of proved undeveloped reserves stop meeting the SEC definition, primarily in the United States? The document records the reclassification and gives no reason.
- What price deck supports the carrying value of Upstream assets? Impairment tests use assumptions from the Corporate Plan, which is not disclosed, and no sensitivity is given.
- What did Pioneer earn in 2025? The acquisition closed in May 2024 and the filing reports no 2025 contribution, so the return on about US$68 billion cannot be measured on a full year.
- Why did equity companies pay US$3,006 million of dividends above their booked earnings, against US$191 million a year earlier? Without that line operating cash flow fell 10.7% rather than 5.5%, and the document does not explain it.
- What does the US$419 million restructuring charge cover, and what sits inside the US$2,072 million line called “All other financing costs – net”? Neither has a note.
- How does capex split between maintenance and growth? The document does not separate them, and the proxy’s US$4.0 billion of Pioneer synergies never appears in the financial statements.
At US$120.34 the market capitalises ExxonMobil at US$503.0 billion: 18.0 times 2025 earnings, 15.4 times the three-year average and 13.5 times the best of the three years, 21.3 times free cash flow for a yield of 4.69%, and 8.0 times EBITDA on an enterprise value of US$543.1 billion. Brent in all three years sat between US$69 and US$83 and the document places 2025 crude near the middle of its ten-year range, so the average is not a full cycle and 2025 earnings are neither a peak nor a trough on oil.
Whether the capital added since 2023 earns cannot be settled from this document. The incremental return is negative 10.1%, but the fall in Brent is worth about US$9.5 billion of Upstream earnings on the company’s own sensitivity — more than the whole fall in NOPAT. The parts that can be seen point both ways: non-U.S. Upstream earns 17.7% and refining 19.7%, while U.S. Upstream earns 4.3% and chemicals 2.7%. Pioneer cost about US$68 billion and earned about 3.7% on a pro forma 2024 basis, below the 6.85% earnings yield the company paid for its own shares that year.
The reading holds if price recovers toward the 2023–2024 level, if the US$7,728 million of working capital absorbed in 2025 returns, and if U.S. Upstream returns rise as Permian volumes grow on a lower unit cost. It fails if prices stay at 2025 levels while the stated US$20 billion buyback pace continues, because net debt then rises every year, or if reserves revisions and impairments repeat on the U.S. assets. The shareholder receives a free cash flow yield of 4.69% while the company returns 7.46% in cash; the difference is paid from a balance sheet that has room for it but less than a year ago.
Strengths
- A unit cost of US$10.20 against a realised price of US$65.18
Average production cost per oil-equivalent barrel fell 3.1% in 2025, the third consecutive fall from US$10.63. Non-U.S. Upstream earned 17.7% on average capital employed even at 2025 prices, and cash operating expenses excluding energy taxes of US$44.1 billion are level with the US$44.0 billion of 2019 on a much larger volume.
- Production up 9.3% to a record 4,736 thousand barrels a day
Liquids rose from 2,987 to 3,329 thousand barrels a day, with Permian at 1.6 million oil-equivalent barrels a day and Guyana gross production at 715 thousand, more than offsetting 133 thousand lost to divestments. Proved reserves of 19,311 million barrels cover 10.96 years of the production recorded in the reserves tables.
- Low leverage against the cash the business makes
Net debt of US$32,856 million is 0.48 times EBITDA and 11.0% of net debt plus equity. Only US$6,234 million of long-term debt falls due in 2026 and about US$2.5 billion in 2027, against US$51,970 million of operating cash flow.
- Refining earnings per barrel processed almost doubled
Energy Products earned US$5.11 per barrel processed against US$2.83, on throughput that moved only 2.0% to 3,979 thousand barrels a day. The year was margin, not volume: the company attributes US$1.8 billion to robust demand and supply disruptions. Before identified items the figure is US$4.78.
- US$87.8 billion of free cash flow over three years, with no shares sold for cash
Operations supplied US$162,361 million over 2023–2025 against US$74,583 million of capex. Net debt was repaid by US$5,198 million and the 591 million shares issued went to the Pioneer and Denbury acquisitions, not to raising cash.
Last year’s watch-list, checked against this filing
| What we flagged | What happened | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Share repurchase pace of US$20 billion for 2025 | Carried out: the company states it completed share repurchases of US$20 billion in 2025, and the cash flow statement shows US$20,273 million. The pace statement is dated 9 December 2025, so it does not test an earlier forecast. | DONE - carried out |
| Cost savings of US$20 billion against 2019 by 2030 | US$15.1 billion cumulative, US$3.0 billion added in 2025; US$4.9 billion to go in five years. | IN PROGRESS - on track |
| 2030 corporate greenhouse gas and flaring intensity plans | Stated as already achieved for greenhouse gas and flaring intensity; methane intensity expected later in the year. | DONE - ahead on two of three |
| Pioneer synergies (proxy) | Approximately US$4.0 billion identified, described as doubling initial expectations. Synergies are not reported in the financial statements and Pioneer’s 2025 results are not disclosed. | NOT VERIFIABLE - not in the financial statements |
| Capex guidance and production targets set a year earlier | The 10-K does not restate the previous year’s targets and the prior-year filing was not supplied, so the comparison cannot be made. | NOT VERIFIABLE - no prior targets in the document |
| Golden Pass first LNG, Guyana vessels, Permian at 2.5 Moebd by 2030, US$20 billion buyback pace for 2026 | All stated in this filing; none yet verifiable. | TO BE CHECKED NEXT YEAR |
What to watch in the next filing
- Net debt, now US$32,856 million after rising US$14,175 million in one year. It shows whether distributions above free cash flow continued, and whether buybacks were cut before the dividend.
- U.S. Upstream return on average capital employed, now 4.3% on US$118 billion. It is where Pioneer’s value will appear or not, and where an impairment would start.
- Upstream earnings per barrel produced, now US$12.35, read with production of 4,736 thousand barrels a day. Read together the pair separates price from volume; neither half alone does.
- Chemical earnings per tonne, now about US$38 on 21,303 thousand tonnes. It shows whether the 2.5 million-tonne China complex was added at the trough or into a longer decline.
- Consolidated reserves revisions, now minus 929 million barrels, and the 1.0 billion barrels reclassified out of proved undeveloped. They show whether 2025 was a one-off or the start of a lower price view.
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